Both Kogan and Redbubble have been booted from the ASX200, but after their 52-week lows last week, is there a change in the air?
Both Redbubble and Kogan’s share price sunk recently, with shares being sold off after the two e-commerce companies were kicked out of the ASX200 at the quarterly rebalance. Last week, both Redbubble and Kogan hit their 52-week lows (Redbubble at $3.02 on 9 December 2021 and Kogan at $7.20 on 6 December 2021). The good(ish) news is they haven’t hit new lows this week (I mean, good news is all relative these days, right?).
After being booted from the ASX200, Redbubble’s share price has jumped 5.4% in seven days, at $3.32 at close of ASX on Monday. Similarly, Kogan has jumped 12.6% to $8.11 in the same period, actually making it the best performer of the ASX Listed E-Com Index for this period. For context however, it has shed 22.8% over a 90 day period and at the same time last year, its share price was $17.55.
In keeping with the theme of 52-week lows, Booktopia’s share price dropped to $1.75 this week, which is the lowest it has been since the company listed last December. We haven’t yet seen a rebound, so it’s uncertain whether the company will follow a similar upwards trajectory to Redbubble and Kogan in the following days. Booktopia shares shed 5.1% over seven days and a massive 35% over 90 days, making it the worst performer in the ASX Listed E-Com Index.
Source: E-Com Index based on ASX reporting for the period
Adore Beauty’s 52-week low was back in May 2021 when it hit $3.31 (after a high of $6.24 in January this year). Now at $4.26, Adore Beauty has plateaued slightly, with growth of 1.7% over the last week. Similarly, BikeExchange is stagnant, with 0% growth over 14 days. Its $0.15 (at close of ASX on Monday) represents a 6.5% loss over 90 days.
Cettire shares are up 11.7% over seven days, though at $3.52 as at 13 December, this is also a plateau (given it shed 14.1% over the last 30 days). After a period of turbulence earlier in the year that resulted in a trading pause, investor confidence now seems to be strong. It listed at $0.50 per share when it floated just before Christmas last year. Its growth of 604% to date is impressive to say the least, especially when compared to some of the heavy hitters who failed to stay the course.
After a disappointing few weeks, Temple & Webster has started to make gains, now up 4.5% to $10.48. Back in August 2021 its share price was +$13, so over 90 days it has actually shed 18.8%. Like Cettire, Temple & Webster bucks the downward trend, actually showing growth year-on-year. It closed at $9.53 on 15 December 2020—not quite Cettire-level growth, but far from Kogan’s dramatic decline.
MyDeal is down 3.4% over the last seven days, but its share price has actually grown 13.3% over 90 days, up to $0.85, more evidence of its steady recovery since its low in May this year.
In the last seven days, the ASX Listed E-Com index has outperformed the ASX200 (the former at 6% growth compared to the latter at 1.9%). So while the year-on-year changes and the dramatic 52-week lows don’t necessarily appear to paint a positive picture, e-com is actually faring well.
While Cettire’s year-on-year change compared to Kogan’s is enough to give you whiplash, what we’ve seen in 2021 is that the potential for e-com growth in a post-COVID landscape is enormous. With retention strategies in place and impressive active customer numbers, there is plenty of room for most e-com players to increase their market share. As we see in the new year, will we see a change of heart from investors?
Figures are current as at close of ASX on 13 December 2021. This is analysis only and not intended as investment advice.
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