STOCK WATCH: Kogan Plummets as E-Com Lags

Investor confidence is low, with the ASX E-Com Index underperforming (yet again). Kogan is the worst performer, dropping 8.8% in the last week and 25.3% over a 90 day period, closing at $8.16 on Monday. For context, it closed at $16.40 this time last year. The sharp decline follows a second strike vote on remuneration at its AGM.

From IPO in 2016 to 31 October 2021, Kogan has delivered total shareholder return of 517% compared to the ASX200 return of 74%, Kogan Chairman Greg Ridder said in his opening address. Founder and CEO Ruslan Kogan also announced that it aims to achieve $3 Billion in annual Gross Sales and 1,000,000 Kogan First subscribers by FY26. Despite this, investors seem unconvinced. In the last few weeks, we have flagged that Kogan is set for a rebound, yet at sub $9 for over a week, it looks like we’re still waiting.

Kogan is by no means alone in its underperformance. Temple & Webster is down 5.8% over seven days, and 17.3% over a three month period. Though closing at $10.72 on Monday, unlike Kogan it’s actually up year-on-year (from $9.84 at this time in 2020).

Source: E-Com Index based on ASX reporting for the period

At Booktopia’s AGM, it announced that in its first year as a listed company, it had beat all the financial targets it had set in its prospectus. Despite this, we’ve seen a slight dip in Booktopia’s share price, closing at $2.15 on Monday and shedding 3.2% over seven days. Booktopia shares peaked in the week after listing at $2.99, and again reached these heights in August of this year. Will we see these figures again as Booktopia’s growth strategy hits its stride in 2022?

Unlike Booktopia, Adore Beauty stocks were thought by some to be overvalued when it listed back in October last year. It has dropped considerably year-on-year, closing at $4.34 on Monday, compared to $6.50 at the same time in 2020. Its current share price marks a 5.4% dip over seven days, though it managed to hit $5.20 earlier in the month. Whether it can reach the $6+ we saw at the beginning of the year remains to be seen, though we have seen shares sit comfortably at the $5+ many times during the year.

Source: E-Com Index based on ASX reporting for the period

Perhaps surprisingly, BikeExchange seems to be the top performer in the last week, though closing at $0.16 and at 0% growth, this doesn’t speak highly of the E-Com Index as a whole! Earlier in the year, its share price was consistently above $0.20, and while it has shed 13.5% over 90 days, the bike marketplace would no doubt be hoping to shift gears and claw its way past the teens and back to these kinds of figures moving forward.

Cettire, which was relatively unheard of earlier this year, has been making a name for itself in the second half of 2021. Its share price has jumped 53.1% in the last three months. Now at $3.72, it has shed 4.4% over the last week and seems to be stabilising somewhat. At $0.86 MyDeal is also pretty static, shedding 1.7%. It is, however, up 18.8% over a 90 day period, up from  $0.72. Redbubble opened at $3.45 this morning, and unlike MyDeal, is down 16.9% over three months, from $4.15 back in August.

As we head into the December Christmas period, there will no doubt be movement on the ASX Listed E-Com Index, though in which direction remains to be seen. Some shares seem to be in a kind of wait-and-see holding pattern, while others are firmly on a downwards trajectory. Despite strong results and a year that has seen consumer behaviour shift online in the long-term, investor confidence isn’t high.

With news of the Omicron variant putting a hold on overseas travel plans and lockdown memories rising to the surface, will online retail see a boost? Welcome to the ‘new normal’, where the old is new again and nothing is normal.

Figures are current as at close of ASX on 29 November 2021. This is analysis only and not intended as investment advice.

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