Can Kogan claw back lost ground? Will MyDeal retain its growth? At the tail end of 2021, not all online retailers are faring well on the ASX.
Looking at the last three months on the ASX, the e-com picture isn’t exactly a pretty one. In that period, Booktopia’s share price dropped 21.1 percent, Kogan dipped 20.3 percent, BikeExchange shed 19 percent, Temple & Webster dropped 13.8 percent and Adore Beauty shed 9.5 percent. In the last 90 days, the ASX200 lost 2.2 percent, outperforming the ASX E-Com Index, which lost 6.3 percent. As we come out the other side of the pandemic and find our feet in the ‘new normal’ of post-lockdown life, what does this mean for e-com?
The good news is that in the shorter term, there seems to be a slight shift. In the last seven days, Booktopia’s share price looks to be rebounding, with growth of 2.3 percent (closing at $2.21 on Tuesday). At $9.16, Kogan’s share price is far from impressive, but still represents 1.3 percent growth in the last week. It hasn’t yet hit $10 this month as it did in October, but as we head towards the holiday season, there are signs that there may be some upwards movement. In contrast to the 90 day underperformance, the ASX E-Com Index is up 1.1 percent over the last week, ahead of the ASX200 which is down 0.2 percent.
Temple & Webster opened at $10.72 this morning, shedding 2.5 percent in seven days, but closing the gap sightly on the $11+ we were seeing earlier in the month. Will Temple & Webster and Kogan be able to make up lost ground and head closer to the $13+ mark?
Source: Power Retail Australian Listed E-Com Index based on ASX reporting
Cettire seems to be bucking the trend of having a rocky few months. Over 90 days, it recorded a massive 80.6 percent growth at $4.75, up from $2.32 in August. In the last fortnight, it’s up 34.9 percent. While there were concerns about its business model earlier in the year, impacting its share price and sending the company into a trading halt, this seems to have been addressed and investors minds have clearly been eased. Like Cettire, MyDeal seems not to be as impacted by post-lockdown strife. It has recorded 23.1 percent growth over 90 days, now at $0.83 (up from $0.66). We did see the company hit $0.53 back in May, so while we’re not yet at the $0.90+ mark, it’s certainly heading in the right direction.
Redbubble is up 14.4 percent over the three month period, but seems to be losing momentum. Closing at $3.73 on Tuesday, it shed 1.3 percent over seven days. Opening at $4.65 this morning, Adore Beauty isn’t hitting the $5+ we had been seeing from the pureplay retailer earlier in the month, shedding 3.9 percent.
As we head into the Christmas buying period and the array of November sales events, we expect to see upwards movement across the E-Com Index. In 2022, it will become clear which online retailers were short-term beneficiaries of the pandemic push online, and which will be long-term success stories, capitalising on consumer loyalty and retention.
Figures are current as at close of ASX on 16 November 2021. This is analysis only and not intended as investment advice.
The e-commerce landscape is changing. With a Power Retail Switched On membership, you get access to current e-commerce revenue and forecasting, traffic levels, average conversion rate, payment preferences and more! Find out more here.